By Kent Bush, More Content Now
Hillary Clinton is the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate for 2016. She has a resume and campaign war chest that make her the obvious choice.
She was a first lady, so she has name recognition. She has a ton of cash on hand. She was a senator and a secretary of state, so she has both domestic and foreign policy experience.
I just don’t know that she will be on the 2016 ticket. If she is, I don’t think she will win.
There are many reasons.
I have often written about how John McCain’s campaign staff was cynical in its selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate in 2008. The idea was that Barack Obama didn’t choose Clinton even after she came in second in the primary. They decided to pick Palin to appeal to female voters who Obama had offended by slighting Clinton.
That is laughable because Clinton and Palin supporters couldn’t have less in common. It is insulting to believe that women who would support Clinton would also vote for Palin simply because they use the same public restrooms.
But the two candidates do have one thing in common. They are very polarizing. Palin will always enjoy a level of success. No matter what scandal rocks the Palin igloo, the tea party leader never fades away.
Clintonwill also always enjoy a certain level of success.
However, the two both exist under a glass ceiling. Neither Palin from the right or Clinton from the left have ever been able to gain the level of support it takes to win their party’s nomination at the top of the ticket.
Clintonhad the exact same advantages in 2008. However, a black man with limited political experience and the most unfortunate name in political history was able to knock her out of the race. She is the frontrunner again for 2016 but there is no reason to believe she won’t be outflanked again.
Look at the hurdles she has to clear. Another book has been released alleging her husband, former President Bill Clinton is having another affair inside their marriage. Many women don’t like the way Hillary allowed Bill to get away with his escapades when he was in the White House. New allegations won’t help.
Clintonalso struggles with her own scandals. Her email scandal has been especially hard on her because credibility was already and issue and misusing and hiding public information isn’t helping that reputation. More than 57 percent of Americans say they don’t view her as trustworthy or honest. He polling data is dropping fast.
One of the biggest problems that scandal has caused is that it has limited her support in the media. But the substance of the emails in question might be a bigger scandal.
If you haven’t noticed, no one is talking about the Benghazi terrorist attacks right now. I think the reason Benghazi is on the backburner is that strategists know that voters get tired of hearing the same stories. Because of that, they will recommend keeping your powder dry and saving the trump cards for the appropriate times.
A movie is set to come out in January that tells the Benghazi story. I am no prophet, but I am willing to bet that movie doesn’t portray Clinton as a thoughtful and courageous secretary of state who did a great job in the face of disaster.
That movie will open the door to discussions about a topic that won’t be beneficial to Clinton.
All of these scandals in addition to her inability to achieve the necessary support to win the nomination in the past constrain my expectations for her current campaign.
By all rights, Clinton should be atop the Democratic ticket next year. But don’t be surprised when she’s not.
This article originally appeared on Santa Rosa Press Gazette: Clinton should win, but don't count on it